Zimmerman_Volk Market StudyDRAFT
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL
The Village at Hospital Hill
The City of Northampton
Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
On Behalf of
THE COMMUNITY BUILDERS
Conducted by
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
6 East Main Street
Clinton, New Jersey 08809
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
6 East Main Street
Clinton, New Jersey 08809
908 735-6336 • 908 735-4751 facsimile
www.ZVA.cc • info@ZVA.cc
Research & Strategic Analysis
STUDY CONTENTS
Residential Market Potential (Draft)1
Introduction 1
Market Potential 3
Market Potential For The Village At Hospital Hill 4
Table 1: Potential Housing Market 7
Optimum Residential Mix 8
Target Markets 9
Table 2: Optimum Residential Mix By Household Type 12
Site and Market Overview 14
Table 3: Summary Of Selected Rental Properties 17
Table 4: Summary Of Selected For-Sale Multi-Family And Single-Family
Attached Developments 19
Table 5: Summary Of Selected Multi-Family And Attached Listings 20
Table 6: Summary Of Selected Single-Family Detached Listings 21
Optimum Market Position 23
Table 7: Optimum Market Position—500 Dwelling Units 25
Absorption Forecasts 31
Neighborhood Form 33
The New Urbanism 34
Building and Unit Types 35
Multi-Family 35
Single-Family Attached 35
Single-Family Detached 36
Methodology 37
Assumptions and Limitations 47
Rights and Study Ownership 48
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ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
6 East Main Street
Clinton, New Jersey 08809
908 735-6336 • 908 735-4751 facsimile
Info@ZVA.cc • www.ZVA.cc
D R A F T
R E S I D E N T I A L M A R K E T P O T E N T I A L
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
INTRODUCTION
This study identifies the depth and breadth of the potential market, and the optimum market
position for new dwelling units—both adaptive re-use of existing buildings and new
construction—within the Village at Hospital Hill, an approximately 70-acre property located
next to Smith College in the City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts. The
redevelopment site is located on Route 66 (Prince Street) and was formerly the location of the
Northampton State Hospital, a public psychiatric hospital; several buildings, most of which
are in poor condtion, remain on site. The property adjoins the Smith College playing fields
to the east, and is surrounded by conservation lands to the north and west.
The market feasibility of 500 new market-rate and affordable housing units that could
potentially be constructed within a redevelopment of the site has been analyzed using
Zimmerman/Volk Associates’ proprietary target market methodology (the capture of
qualified households that have the potential to rent or purchase new housing units on the site)
and verified within the context of new and existing development in the Northampton market
area.
The target market methodology was developed in response to the challenges that are inherent
in the application of supply/demand analysis to urban development and redevelopment.
Historically, many urban neighborhoods have experienced population loss, often severe; since
conventional supply/demand analyses generally project the continuation of past trends, the
forecasts of “demand” in these neighborhoods are often minimal, if not negative.
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 2
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
Supply/demand analysis ignores the potentially-significant impact of newly-introduced
housing supply on settlement patterns, particularly when that supply is specifically targeted to
match the housing preferences and economic capabilities of the draw area households.
In contrast to conventional supply/demand analysis, then—which is based on supply-side
dynamics and baseline demographic projections—target market analysis determines the depth
and breadth of the potential market derived from the housing preferences and socio-economic
characteristics of households in the defined draw area, even in locations where no close
comparables exist. Because it considers not only basic demographic characteristics, such as
income qualification and age, but also less-frequently analyzed attributes such as mobility
rates, lifestyle patterns and household compatibility issues, the target market methodology is
particularly effective in defining a realistic housing potential for urban development and
redevelopment.
This study therefore determined:
• Where the potential renters and buyers for new housing units to be developed
within a mixed-use, mixed-income development of the Village at Hospital
Hill are likely to move from (the draw areas);
• Who currently lives in the draw areas and what they are like (the target
markets);
• How many are likely to move to the site if appropriate housing units were to be
made available (depth and breadth of the market);
• What their housing preferences are in aggregate (rental or ownership, multi-
family or single-family);
• What they will pay to rent or purchase newly-created dwelling units on the
Village at Hospital Hill site (market-rate rents and prices);
• What their alternatives are (new construction/existing housing in the
Northampton area); and
• How quickly they will rent or purchase the new units (absorption
forecats/market capture).
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 3
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
The target market methodology is described in detail in the METHODOLOGY section at the
end of this study.
NOTE: Tables 1 and 2 outline the depth and breadth, and composition of the potential market
for new housing units in a mixed-use, mixed-income development of the Village at Hospital
Hill in the City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts. Tables 3 through 6
summarize selected supply-side data. Table 7 details the optimum market position for 500
residential units that could potentially be developed on the site. The Appendix Tables contain
migration and target market data covering the appropriate draw areas for the City of
Northampton and for the site.
MARKET POTENTIAL
Analysis of migration, mobility and geo-demographic characteristics of households currently
living within defined draw areas is integral to the determination of the depth and breadth of
the potential market for new dwelling units within a new mixed-use, mixed-income
neighborhood on the Village at Hospital Hill site.
The depth and breadth of the potential market for new rental and for-sale housing units to be
constructed on the site have been derived from the housing preferences and financial capacities
of the draw area households, identified through Zimmerman/Volk Associates’ proprietary
target market methodology and extensive experience with urban development and
redevelopment.
Based on Zimmerman/Volk Associates’ field investigation, analysis of migration and
mobility data, and assessment of the assets and constraints of the site, new housing units
constructed wtihin the Village at Hospital Hill could attract a range of potential renters and
buyers from both the City of Northampton and the balance of Hampshire County (the primary
draw area).
In addition to households already living in the city or county, new housing units on the site are
likely to present an attractive alternative to a number of residents of adjacent or other
Massachusetts Counties; a regional draw area has therefore been defined as Hampden, Franklin,
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 4
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
Worcester and Middlesex Counties. The analysis also factors in those households moving from
all other counties in the United States represented in Hampshire County migration.
Therefore, as derived from migration, mobility and target market analysis, the draw area
distribution of market potential (those households with the potential to move within or to the
City of Northampton) would be as follows (see also Appendix One, Tables 8A and 8B):
Market Potential By Draw Area
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
City of Northampton (Primary Draw Area):30.4 percent
Hampshire County(Primary Draw Area):26.1 percent
Regional Draw Area:18.5 percent
Balance of US (National Draw Area):25.0 percent
Total:100.0 percent
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2006.
MARKET POTENTIAL FOR THE VILLAGE AT HOSPITAL HILL
The target market methodology also identifies those households that prefer newly-created
dwelling units in urban neighborhoods. After discounting for those segments of the city’s
potential market that have preferences for existing housing units, and for housing in suburban
and/or rural locations, the distribution of draw area market potential for newly-constructed
housing units within the Village at Hospital Hill would be as follows (see also Appendix One,
Tables 9A and 9B):
Market Potential By Draw Area
THE VILLAGE AT HOSPITAL HILL
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
City of Northampton (Primary Draw Area):32.0 percent
Hampshire County(Primary Draw Area):12.2 percent
Regional Draw Area:19.3 percent
Balance of US (National Draw Area):36.5 percent
Total:100.0 percent
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2006.
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 5
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
The balance of Hampshire County represents a significantly smaller proportion of market
potential for new housing in the Village at Hospital Hill than for the city as a whole.
Conversely, the Northampton, regional and national draw areas represent somewhat larger
segments of market potential for the Village than for the city as a whole.
Based on the target market analysis, then, in the year 2006, just over 1,800 households represent
the potential market for newly-created dwelling units on the site if appropriate housing
options were to be made available .
The housing preferences of these 1,810 draw area households—based on tenure
(rental/ownership) choices and financial capacity—are outlined as follows (see also Table 1):
Annual Potential Housing Market
Based on Draw Area Household Tenure Propensities and Income Levels
THE VILLAGE AT HOSPITAL HILL
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
NUMBER OF
HOUSING TYPE HOUSEHOLDS PERCENT
Multi-Family Rental Units 780 43.1%
Below Market-Rate*300 16.6%
Market-Rate*480 26.5%
Multi-Family Ownership Units 260 14.4%
(All Price Ranges)
Single-Family Ownership Units 770 42.5%
Attached (All Price Ranges)170 9.4%
Below-Market-Rate* Detached 160 8.8%
Market-Rate* Detached 440 24.3 %
Total:1,810 100.0%
*Market rate is defined as affordable to households with incomes no less than 80
percent of the Area Median Family Income (AMFI), in 2005, of $69,200 for a family
of four.
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2006.
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 6
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
Just over 43 percent of the potential market is for rental units, of which nearly 62 percent
qualify as “market-rate,” meaning households who do not require financial assistance to cover
the monthly rents. The remaining 56.9 percent of the potential market is for ownership units,
distributed between for-sale apartments (multi-family, all price ranges), townhouses/live-
work (single-family attached, all price ranges) and market-rate and below-market-rate
detached houses. Market-rate detached houses comprise approximately 43 percent of the
ownership market.
Again, these numbers indicate the depth of the annual potential market for newly-created
housing units within the Village at Hospital Hill redevelopment, not housing need . These are
the households that are likely to move to the neighborhood if appropriate housing options were
to be made available and if compatible non-residential uses are also introduced .
Table 1
Potential Housing Market
Distribution Of The Potential Market Based On Housing Preferences And Income Levels
Of Draw Area Households With The Potential To Move To The Site In 2005
The Village At Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
City of Northampton; Balance of Hampshire County; Regional Draw Counties; All Other U.S. Counties
Draw Areas
Total Target Market Households
With Potential To Rent/Purchase Within The
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts 4,600
Total Target Market Households
With Potential To Rent/Purchase Within
The Village At Hospital Hill 1,810
Potential Housing Market
. . . . . . . . Multi-Family . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . Single-Family . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . For-Rent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . For-Sale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Below Below
Market-Rate*Market-Rate*AllRanges AllRanges Market-Rate*Market-Rate*
Apts.Apts.Apts.Attached Detached Detached Total
Total Households:300 480 260 170 160 440 1,810
{Percent}:16.6%26.5%14.4%9.4%8.8%24.3%100.0%
Optimum Residential Mix -- 500 Dwelling Units
. . . . . . . . Multi-Family . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . Single-Family . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . For-Rent . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . For-Sale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Below Below
Market-Rate*Market-Rate*AllRanges AllRanges Market-Rate*Market-Rate*
Apts.Apts.Apts.Attached Detached Detached Total
Mix Distribution:83 133 72 46 44 122 500
*Market rate is defined as affordable to households with incomes at or above
80 percent of the Hampshire AMFI (Area Median Family Income), which is
$69,200 for a family of four in 2005.
NOTE:Reference Appendix One, Tables 1 through 12.
SOURCE:Claritas, Inc.;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 8
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
—OPTIMUM RESIDENTIAL MIX—
From the perspective of draw area target market propensities and compatibility, and within
the context of the new housing marketplace in the Northampton market area, the potential
market for new housing units within the Village at Hospital Hill includes a range of housing
types, from multi-family rentals to single-family detached houses. However, the market
potential for the site could support considerably more than 200 units. Up to 500 units,
outlined in the mix below, could be absorbed by the market within a four-year development
timeframe; the appropriate mix of 500 units, based on target market preferences, would be as
follows (see again Table 1):
Optimum Residential Mix—500 Units
THE VILLAGE AT HOSPITAL HILL
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
SHARE OF NUMBER OF
HOUSING TYPE HOUSEHOLDS UNITS
Multi-Family Rental Units 43.1%216
Below Market-Rate*16.6%83
Market-Rate*26.5%133
Multi-Family For-Sale Units 14.4%72
(All Price Ranges)
Single-Family Ownership Units 42.5%212
Attached (All Price Ranges)9.4%46
Below-Market-Rate* Detached 8.8%44
Market-Rate* Detached 24.3%122
Total:100.0%500
*Market rate is defined as affordable to households with incomes no less than 80
percent of the Area Median Family Income (AMFI), in 2005, of $69,200 for a family
of four.
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2006.
It should be noted that the above, market-driven mix includes approximately 75 percent
market-rate housing units, considerably higher than the state requirement of 50 percent market-
rate/50 percent affordable units. However, from the market perspective, the higher percentage
of market-rate units will ensure market acceptance of the overall mixed-income development
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 9
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
approach, particularly given the requirement that 15 percent of the units are to be set aside for
clients of the Massachusetts Department of Mental Health.
The market-driven mix also includes approximately 38 percent affordable rental units,
considerably less than the requirement of 75 percent affordable rental units (for households at
or below 60 percent of the area median family income). In addition, the market-driven mix
includes 15 to 20 percent affordable for-sale units, somewhat less than the requirement of 25
percent affordable for-sale units.
Although the original development plan was for a total of 207 units, this study indicates that
the market is deep enough to absorb significantly more than 207 units. Undertaking a market-
driven mix of 500 units, as outlined above, would allow for 127 below-market-rate units, at
least 23 more units than would be available through the original development plan.
TARGET MARKETS
The market for urban housing is now being fueled by the convergence of the two largest
generations in the history of America: the 82 million Baby Boomers born between 1946 and
1964, and the 78 million Millennials, who were born from 1977 to 1996.
Boomer households have been moving from the full-nest to the empty-nest life stage at an
accelerating pace that will peak sometime in the next decade and continue beyond 2020.
Since the first Boomer turned 50 in 1996, empty nesters have had a substantial impact on
urban, particularly downtown housing. After fueling the dramatic diffusion of the population
into ever-lower-density exurbs for nearly three decades, Boomers, particularly affluent
Boomers, are rediscovering the merits and pleasures of urban living.
At the same time, Millennials are just leaving the nest. The Millennials are the first
generation to have been largely raised in the post-’70s world of the cul-de-sac as neighborhood,
the mall as village center, and the driver’s license as a necessity of life. As has been the case
with predecessor generations, significant numbers of Millennials are heading for the city.
They are not just moving to New York, Chicago, San Francisco and the other large American
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 10
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
cities; often priced out of these larger cities, Millennials are discovering second, third and
fourth tier urban centers.
The convergence of two generations of this size—simultaneously reaching a point when urban
housing matches their life stage—is unprecedented. This year, there are about 41 million
Americans between the ages of 20 and 29, forecast to grow to over 44 million by 2015. In
that same year, the population aged 50 to 59 will have also reached 44 million, from 38
million today. The synchronization of these two demographic waves will mean that there will
be an additional eight million potential urban housing consumers nine years from now.
The potential market for new housing units to be developed the Village at Hospital Hill can
be characterized by household and housing type as follows (see also Table 2):
Optimum Residential Mix By Household and Unit Types
THE VILLAGE AT HOSPITAL HILL
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
. . . . . . . MULTI-FAMILY . . . . . .. . . . . . SINGLE -FAMILY . . . . . .
. . . RENTAL . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . FOR-SALE . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
PERCENT BMR*MARKET †. . ALL RANGES . .BMR*MARKET †
HOUSEHOLD TYPE OF TOTAL APTS APTS APTS ATT.DET .DET .
Empty-Nesters & Retirees 29%37%13%38%24%50%30%
Traditional &
Non-Traditional Families 18%20%10%0%24%19%34%
Younger Singles & Couples 53 % 43 % 77 % 62 % 52 % 31 % 36 %
Total 100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
*BMR: Below market rate.
†Market rate is defined as affordable to households with incomes no less than 80
percent of the Area Median Family Income (AMFI), in 2005, of $69,200 for a family
of four.
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2006.
The largest potential markets for the Village at Hospital Hill in this segment are The VIPs,
Twentysomethings, Small-City Singles, and Soul-City Singles. Younger singles and couples
represent up to 77 percent of the market for multi-family rental units, respectively, and just 36
percent of the market for detached houses on the site. These households are are employed in a
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 11
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
variety of occupations, from professionals, teachers, or others connected with education, small
business owners, “knowledge workers,” to retail and service employees.
Empty nesters and retirees—primarily Cosmopolitan Elite, Middle-Class Move-Downs and
Second City Seniors—represent 29 percent of the potential market for transit-oriented
development on the site. A significant number of these households have children who have
grown up and moved away; another large percentage are retired, with incomes from pensions,
savings and investments. A powerful rationale for an increasing number of older households to
leave the houses in which they raised their families is the desire for newly-constructed housing.
The expense and aggravation of continued repairs to older housing stock can overwhelm many
households; new housing—with new appliances in kitchens and baths, floorplans that match
modern lifestyles, and ample closet space in the bedrooms—becomes increasingly attractive.
Family-oriented households (traditional and non-traditional families) make up the smallest
market (18 percent) for new units on the site. A significant number of these family-oriented
households are non-traditional families, notably single parents with one or two children. Non-
traditional families encompass a wide range of family households, from a single parent with
one or more children, an adult with younger siblings, a grandparent with children and
grandchildren, to an unrelated, same-sex couple with children. Traditional families contain a
married man and woman with an average of two or more children. These can also include
“blended” families, in which each parent was previously married to another individual and
each has children from the prior marriage. The majority of the traditional family households
are dual-income professionals in education- and service-oriented fields.
Table 2
Optimum Residential Mix By Household Type
Distribution Of The Potential Market Based On Housing Preferences And Income Levels
Of Draw Area Households With The Potential To Move To The Site In 2005
The Village At Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
. . . . . . . Multi-Family . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . Single-Family . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . For-Rent . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . For-Sale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Below Below
Market-Rate*Market-Rate*AllRanges AllRanges Market-Rate*Market-Rate*
Total Apts.Apts.Apts.Attached Detached Detached
Number of Households:1,810 300 480 260 170 160 440
Empty Nesters
& Retirees 29%37%13%38%24%50%30%
Traditional &
Non-Traditional Families 18%20%10%0%24%19%34%
Younger
Singles & Couples 53%43%77%62%52%31%36%
100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
*Market rate is defined as affordable to households with incomes at or above
80 percent of the Hampshire AMFI (Area Median Family Income), which is
$69,200 for a family of four in 2005.
NOTE:Reference Appendix One, Tables 1 through 12.
SOURCE:Claritas, Inc.;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 13
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
The primary target groups, their median and range of incomes, and median home values, are:
Primary Target Groups for New Housing Units
(In Order of Median Income)
THE VILLAGE AT HOSPITAL HILL
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
HOUSEHOLD MEDIAN BROAD INCOME MEDIAN HOME
TYPE INCOME RANGE VALUE (IF OWNED )
Empty Nesters & Retirees
Cosmopolitan Elite $104,900 $65,000–$150,000 $327,000
Suburban Establishment $102,600 $60,000–$140,000 $333,900
Affluent Empty Nesters $102,100 $55,000–$145,000 $328,800
Mainstream Retirees $79,600 $50,000–$110,000 $210,500
Middle-Class Move-Downs $63,500 $35,000–$100,000 $244,000
Blue-Collar Retirees $38,800 $25,000–$60,000 $152,700
Suburban Retirees $35,700 $20,000–$55,000 $173,000
Suburban Seniors $31,700 $25,000–$50,000 $171,000
Hometown Retirees $27,000 $20,000–$50,000 $128,300
Second-City Seniors $23,300 $20,000–$45,000 $126,400
Traditional & Non-Traditional Families
The Entrepreneurs $141,600 $95,000–$200,000 $466,500
Unibox Transferees $102,500 $55,000–$140,000 $336,900
Late-Nest Suburbanites $92,400 $50,000–$140,000 $330,500
Full-Nest Suburbanites $91,100 $45,000–$135,000 $325,400
Multi-Ethnic Families $63,600 $35,000–$90,000 $214,200
Struggling Suburbanites $35,100 $25,000–$50,000 $199,300
Single Parent Families $30,700 $15,000–$50,000 $153,500
Younger Singles & Couples
e-Types $117,400 $60,000–$200,000 $365,800
Fast-Track Professionals $93,600 $50,000–$130,000 $292,000
The VIPs $89,900 $50,000–$125,000 $290,400
Upscale Suburban Couples $84,200 $40,000–$130,000 $256,600
New Bohemians $78,700 $45,000–$100,000 $285,700
Twentysomethings $66,900 $40,000–$95,000 $228,400
Suburban Achievers $65,200 $30,000–$95,000 $230,800
No-Nest Suburbanites $64,200 $30,000–$90,000 $215,600
Urban Achievers $62,800 $30,000–$95,000 $285,800
Small-City Singles $57,200 $30,000–$85,000 $216,000
Suburban Strivers $32,800 $25,000–$50,000 $196,400
Blue-Collar Singles $30,500 $15,000–$45,000 $146,100
Soul-City Singles $24,200 $15,000–$40,000 $157,300
NOTE:The names and descriptions of the market groups summarize each group’s tendencies—as
determined through geo-demographic cluster analysis—rather than their absolute
composition. Hence, every group could contain “anomalous” households, such as empty-nester
households within a “full-nest” category.
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2006.
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 14
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
SITE AND MARKET OVERVIEW
The Village at Hospital Hill site is comprised of approximately 70 acres located on Route
66 within the city limits of the City of Northampton in Hampshire County, Massachusetts.
The property was formerly the location of the Northampton State Hospital, a public
psychiatric hospital, and the developable area is bounded by the Smith College playing fields
to the east, the Mill River to the north, and conservation lands to the west. Several buildings
remain on the site, and most are in dilapidated condition. The property is heavily wooded
with at least 300 specimen trees; mountain and water views are available from several locations
on the site. The South Employees’ Home building and the Nurses’ Home building have been
converted to 33 one- to three-bedroom flats and two-story rental units; the units include both
both affordable and market-rate apartments.
Prince Street (Route 66) divides the site; the northern parcel is currently proposed for
primarily residential development, and the southern parcel for commercial development.
There are few commercial uses in the vicinity of the site, the exceptions being the Haskell state
office building located on Prince Street west of the entry road, and an auto repair shop
situated on a triangular parcel formed by the intersection of Prince, Chapel and Laurel Streets.
Smith College is directly to the east of the property at the intersection of West Street (Route
66) and Elm Street (State Route 9). Downtown Northampton, which contains an
extraordinary variety of specialty shops, galleries, restaurants and eateries, as well as
entertainment venues, is approximately a mile from the site.
From a market perspective, the assets of the site include:
• Its excellent visibility from Route 66.
• Its adjacency to Smith College.
• The potential for views of the mountains from several locations on the site, and
the existing amenities that include the walking trails and community gardens.
• The large forested areas and surrounding conservation areas.
• The proximity to the Mill River.
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 15
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
• The limited supply of new residential construction in and around
Northampton; there is a pent-up demand for newly constructed housing suitable
for downsizing and entry-level households for both single-family detached and
multi-family units.
From a market perspective, the challenges associated with the site are limited to:
• The current lack of retail in the vicinity of the site.
• The requirement that half the units developed on the site must be affordable to
households with incomes at or below 60 percent of the area median family
income; although most potential renters and buyers are comfortable living in
mixed-income neighborhoods, most newly-developed mixed-income
communities—with the exception of Hope VI redevelopments—typically
include higher percentages of market-rate units.
• • •
There are very few larger-scale apartment communities located in Northampton. (See Table
3.) The largest is the Hathaway Farms Townhouses, a 207-unit property built in 1972, and
remodeled in 2000. Rents here range from $785 per month for a 702-square-foot one-
bedroom townhouse, to $1,240 for a 1,232-square-foot four-bedroom, two-bath townhouse
($1.01 to $1.12 per square foot). Occupancy approaches 100 percent, although the community
has few amenities, limited to a playground, and high-speed internet.
Excluding Hathaway Farms, market-rate rents in the area range from $800 to $900 for one-
bedroom apartments, some containing fewer than 600 square feet, up to $2,100 for a four-
bedroom, two-and-a-half-bath townhouse containing nearly 1,700 square feet. For the most
part, rents per square foot range between $1.00 and $1.30. All of the apartment properties are
at least 95 percent occupied (functional full occupancy).
At the time of the field investigation, only a few condominium or townhouse projects were
being marketed in Northampton, where base prices for attached units started at $215,000 for a
1,025-square-foot unit located within the McCormick Block, and went as high as $585,000 for
a 2,500-square-foot live-work unit on Strong Avenue. (See Table 4.) Prices per square foot
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 16
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
range between $158 and $267. Three of the projects contain 30 or more units: the
McCormick Block, which is a renovated apartment building; Old School Commons, which is
the redevelopment of former school buildings in Downtown; and the Mountainview
Condominiums in Easthampton, which, at completion, will consist of 32 townhouses.
There were fewer than 40 condominiums, townhouses or duplex units listed for sale in
Northampton in March. (See Table 5.) Prices for condominiums older than 10 years started
at $120,000 and were priced as high as $400,000; newer condominium units were priced from
approximately $200,000 to as much as $560,000. Prices per square foot started as low as
$121; more than half had prices per square foot above $200.
More than 50 single-family detached houses priced above $100,000 were listed for sale in
March. (See Table 6.) The majority of the houses were configured with at least three
bedrooms, and one or two bathrooms, with prices ranging between approximately
$200,000and $800,000. Two listings were for distinctive houses, built before 1900, and
priced at$1,285,000 and $1,390,000. Prices per square foot ranged between $107 and $441;
just under half had prices per square foot above $200.
Table 3 Page 1 of 2
Summary Of Selected Rental Properties
Hampshire County, Massachusetts
January, 2006
Number Reported Reported Rent per
Property (Date Opened)of Units Base Rent Unit Size Sq. Ft.Additional Information
Address
. . . . . Northampton . . . . .
Hathaway Farms Townhouses (1972; Rem. 2000)99% occupancy
73 Barrett Street 207 Private entrances,
1BR/1BA TH $785 702 $1.12 playground,
2BR/1BA TH $975 920 $1.06 high-speed internet.
3BR/1.5BA TH $1,195 1,120 $1.07
4BR/2BA TH $1,240 1,232 $1.01
Hampton Court 77 100% occupancy
20 Hampton Avenue 1BR/1BA to $800 to 586 to $0.90 to Saunas.
4BR/2BA $1,800 2,000 $1.37
Laurel Ridge 100% occupancy
312-380 Hatfield 1BR/1BA $860 700 $1.23 Income qualifications.
2BR/1BA $1,005 918 $1.09
. . . . . Easthampton . . . . .
Eastworks (Adaptive Re-Use)32 100% occupancy
119 Pleasant Street (14 more to be built)600 to Live-work artists'
Studio lofts 2,300 lofts on 4th Floor of
building.
. . . . . Amherst . . . . .
The Boulders (1976; Rem. 2002)256 95% occupancy
156-A Brittany Manor Drive 2BR/1BA $825 to 825 to $0.97 to Fitness center,
$925 950 $1.00 volleyball, basketball,
high-speed internet.
SOURCE:Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 3 Page 2 of 2
Summary Of Selected Rental Properties
Hampshire County, Massachusetts
January, 2006
Number Reported Reported Rent per
Property (Date Opened)of Units Base Rent Unit Size Sq. Ft.Additional Information
Address
. . . . . Amherst(continued) . . . . .
Rolling Green
1A Rolling Green Drive 1BR/1BA $840 759 $1.11 Fitness center,
2BR/1BA $1,059 986 $1.07 volleyball, basketball,
2BR/2BA TH $1,205 1,158 $1.04 high-speed internet.
3BR/2BA TH $1,444 1,158 $1.25
4BR/2BA TH $1,649 1,158 $1.42
Hawkins Meadow
370 Northampton Road 1BR/1BA $905 700 $1.29 Income qualifications.
2BR/1BA $1,070 918 $1.17 Pool.
Mill Valley Estates (1989)148 96% occupancy
420 Riverglade Drive 2BR/2BA $1,050 to 954 to $1.10 to Bilingual staff,
$1,100 994 $1.11 sport courts,
3BR/2BA $1,350 to 1,152 to $1.17 tot lot,
$1,400 1,192 $1.17 high-speed internet.
4BR/2.5BA -TH $2,100 1,680 $1.25
SOURCE:Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 4
Summary Of Selected For-Sale Multi-Family
And Single-Family Attached Developments
Hampshire County, Massachusetts
January, 2006
Total Sales
Unit Unit Price Unit Size Price Per Total (Monthly
Development (Date Opened)Type Range Range Sq. Ft.Units Average)
Developer/Builder
. . . . Northampton . . . .
McCormick Block (1/2005)35 17 (1.5)
Chuck Bowles, developer CO $215,000 to 1,051 to $205 to
$309,000 1,198 $258
Old School Commons (7/2003)54 50 (1.7)
CO $299,900 to 1,270 to $196 to
$437,900 2,230 $236
Strong Avenue 3
Sissman, developer CO $399,900 †1,500 $267
TH/Live Work $585,000 †2,500 $234
. . . . Easthampton . . . .
Mountainview Condominiums 32
ARA Development TH $204,900 1,300 $158
†Prices are for spec or model units.
SOURCE:Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 5
Summary of Selected Multi-Family and Attached Listings
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
March, 2006
Unit List Unit Price Per Unit
Year Built Type Price Size Square Foot Configuration
1974 CO $120,000 1,056 $114 2BR/1.5BA
1974 CO $123,500 1,056 $117 2BR/1.5BA
1982 CO $125,000 700 $179 1BR/1BA
1974 CO $145,000 1,197 $121 2BR/1.5BA
1974 CO $150,000 1,200 $125 2BR/1.5BA
1971 CO $152,900 630 $243 1BR/1BA
1984 CO $157,900 725 $218 1BR/1BA
1900 CO $174,900 650 $269 1BR/1BA
1986 CO $199,000 1,152 $173 2BR/1BA
1900 CO $250,000 1,261 $198 2BR/1BA
1915 CO $255,000 1,107 $230 2BR/1BA
1987 CO $259,000 2,264 $114 2BR/1.5BA
1915 CO $269,000 1,107 $243 2BR/1BA
1915 CO $275,000 1,165 $236 2BR/1BA
1915 CO $275,000 1,035 $266 1BR/1BA
1915 CO $279,000 1,103 $253 2BR/1BA
1900 CO $304,900 1,428 $214 1BR/1BA
1915 CO $309,000 1,198 $258 2BR/1BA
1900 CO $357,900 1,818 $197 2BR/2BA
1900 CO $388,900 1,891 $206 2BR/2BA
1915 CO $395,000 2,274 $174 3BR/1.5BA
1886 CO $399,000 1,500 $266 2BR/1.5BA
1900 CO $437,900 2,230 $196 2BR/2BA
2005 CO $560,000 1,650 $339 2BR/2.5BA
1886 CO $570,000 2,340 $244 3BR/2.5BA
1984 Duplex $187,500 1,000 $188 2BR/1BA
1972 Duplex $219,000 1,296 $169 2BR/1BA
1972 Duplex $219,000 1,296 $169 2BR/1BA
1860 Duplex $249,500 1,149 $217 3BR/1BA
1860 Duplex $259,500 1,101 $236 2BR/1.5BA
1969 TH $189,900 928 $205 2BR/1.5BA
1969 TH $189,900 928 $205 2BR/1.5BA
1971 TH $195,000 974 $200 2BR/1.5BA
1992 TH $215,000 1,124 $191 2BR/1.5BA
1992 TH $259,000 1,390 $186 3BR/1.5BA
1986 TH $265,000 1,380 $192 2BR/1.5BA
SOURCE:Multiple Listing Service;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 6 Page 1 of 2
Summary of Selected Single-Family Detached Listings
$100,000 or More
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
March, 2006
Unit Price Per Lot Unit
Year Built List Price Size Square Foot Size Configuration
1900 $100,000 934 $107 0.05 acre 2BR/1BA
2003 $199,900 896 $223 0.01 acre 2BR/1.5BA
1945 $213,000 1,178 $181 0.54 acre 3BR/1BA
1970 $219,000 960 $228 0.47 acre 3BR/1BA
1955 $220,000 1,008 $218 0.28 acre 2BR/1BA
2005 $224,900 720 $312 2BR/1BA
1968 $228,000 1,228 $186 0.16 acre 2BR/1.5BA
1935 $229,900 1,008 $228 0.33 acre 3BR/1BA
1920 $239,000 1,340 $178 0.3 acre 2BR/1BA
1972 $239,000 1,208 $198 0.29 acre 3BR/1BA
1952 $249,900 1,382 $181 0.34 acre 3BR/1.5BA
1900 $254,500 1,376 $185 0.14 acre 3BR/1BA
1950 $259,900 1,732 $150 5 acres 3BR/1BA
1900 $265,000 1,248 $212 1.66 acre 3BR/2BA
1936 $265,000 1,370 $193 0.57 acre 2BR/2BA
1900 $269,000 1,700 $158 0.21 acre 2BR/1.5BA
1993 $274,900 1,918 $143 0.32 acre 4BR/2BA
1915 $279,000 1,493 $187 0.21 acre 4BR/1.5BA
1942 $279,900 1,682 $166 0.17 acre 4BR/1.5BA
1987 $289,000 1,260 $229 0.15 acre 3BR/1.5BA
1920 $289,900 1,466 $198 0.14 acre 4BR/1BA
1956 $299,000 2,093 $143 0.3 acre 3BR/2BA
1915 $299,000 1,122 $266 0.08 acre 3BR/1BA
1900 $309,800 2,158 $144 0.23 acre 4BR/2BA
1987 $319,000 1,690 $189 0.22 acre 3BR/2.5BA
1850 $325,000 1,232 $264 0.05 acre 2BR/2BA
1900 $339,900 1,580 $215 5.12 acres 3BR/1BA
1890 $349,000 1,460 $239 0.45 acre 4BR/1.5BA
1979 $349,900 1,540 $227 1.54 acres 4BR/2BA
1988 $359,000 2,242 $160 0.69 acre 3BR/2.5BA
1986 $365,000 2,000 $183 0.92 acre 3BR/2BA
1927 $369,900 2,000 $185 0.23 acre 5BR/2BA
1989 $399,000 2,469 $162 0.53 acre 4BR/2.5BA
1972 $399,900 2,194 $182 0.88 acre 3BR/2BA
1900 $409,000 1,422 $288 0.07 acre 3BR/1.5BA
2001 $410,000 2,565 $160 0.7 acre 4BR/3BA
SOURCE:Multiple Listing Service;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 6 Page 2 of 2
Summary of Selected Single-Family Detached Listings
$100,000 or More
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
March, 2006
Price Per Lot Unit
Year Built List Price Unit Size Square Foot Size Configuration
1985 $415,000 1,970 $211 1.4 acres 3BR/2.5BA
2006 $415,000 2,200 $189 0.27 acre 4BR/2.5BA
1922 $420,000 1,874 $224 0.48 acre 3BR/2BA
1950 $440,000 2,236 $197 0.23 acre 4BR/2BA
1910 $459,000 3,300 $139 0.31 acres 4BR/2.5BA
2005 $469,900 2,856 $165 1.42 acres 4BR/2.5BA
1900 $499,000 2,188 $228 0.75 acre 3BR/2BA
1868 $535,000 4,241 $126 0.3 acre 4BR/3.5BA
1984 $560,000 2,160 $259 0.73 acre 3BR/3.5BA
1900 $575,000 3,414 $168 0.11 acre 5BR/3BA
1993 $609,000 3,040 $200 2.11 acres 4BR/3.5BA
1877 $625,000 2,564 $244 0.44 acre 4BR/2BA
2005 $625,000 3,180 $197 0.86 acre 3BR/3.5BA
2004 $689,900 3,100 $223 0.76 acre 4BR/3.5BA
2005 $699,000 3,000 $233 0.42 acre 4BR/2.5BA
2003 $750,000 3,692 $203 2.41 acre 4BR/3BA
1927 $795,000 2,562 $310 0.29 acre 4BR/3.5BA
1859 $1,285,000 4,400 $292 0.5 acre 6BR/5BA
1900 $1,390,000 3,150 $441 0.6 acre 5BR/4.5BA
SOURCE:Multiple Listing Service;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 23
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
OPTIMUM MARKET POSITION
The optimum market position for new rental and for-sale dwelling units to be constructed
within the Village at Hospital Hill has therefore been developed based on a variety of factors,
including but not limited to:
•An urban master plan;
•The site’s assets and challenges;
• Development of some retail uses;
•The new unit rental and purchase propensities of draw area households;
•Current residential market dynamics in the Northampton market area; and
•A high-profile marketing campaign.
Given the success of New Urbanist developments across the country, the high value placed on
new construction by the potential market, and the highly marketable location of the site, and
based on the socio-economic and lifestyle characteristics of the draw area households, the
market-entry base rents and prices for newly-created market-rate residential units that could
currently be sustained by the market is as follows (see also Table 7):
Optimum Market Position—500 Units
THE VILLAGE AT HOSPITAL HILL
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
APPROX .APPROX .APPROX .
NET HOUSING BASE RENT /UNIT SIZE RENT/PRICE
NUMBER DENSITY TYPE PRICE RANGE RANGE PER SQ. FT.
MULTI-FAMILY FOR-RENT —43.1%
83 n/a Tax Credit Units $649 to
$665/mo.
40 n/a Lofts $700 to 500 to $1.22 to
$1,100/mo.900 sf $1.40
93 25 du Apartments $850 to 550 to $1.28 to
$1,600/mo.1,250 sf $1.55
MULTI-FAMILY FOR-SALE—14.4%
40 20 du Lofts $140,000 to 600 to $225 to
$225,000 1,000 sf $233
32 20 du Apartments $185,000 to 750 to $231 to
$300,000 1,300 sf $247
continued on following page . . .
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 24
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
. . . continued from preceding page
APPROX .APPROX .APPROX .
NET HOUSING BASE RENT /UNIT SIZE RENT/PRICE
NUMBER DENSITY TYPE PRICE RANGE RANGE PER SQ. FT.
SINGLE -FAMILY ATTACHED FOR-SALE—94%
41 12 du Rowhouses $175,000 to 900 to $194 to
$325,000 1,450 sf $228
6 12 du Live-Work Units $350,000 to 1,500 to $200 to
$400,000 2,000 sf $233
SINGLE -FAMILY DETACHED FOR-SALE—33.1%
48 8 du Cottages $195,000 to 950 to $196 to
$275,000 1,400 sf $205
69 6 du Bungalows $295,000 to 1,350 to $200 to
$350,000 1,750 sf $219
48 5 du Houses $375,000 to 1,700 to $211 to
$475,000 2,250 sf $221
500 total units
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2006.
The proposed initial rents and prices are in year 2006 dollars and are exclusive of view or
location premiums, options and upgrades. The recommended rent/price points place the units
within the current financial capabilities of the target market households and within the context
of the Northampton market area.
At least one assigned parking space should be allocated per rental unit, and an average of 1.5
spaces per for-sale multi-family unit. On-street parking and small guest parking areas should
also be provided. Covered parking spaces, preferably in a garage, but at minimum within a
carport, should be provided for the more expensive condominiums. Courtyard buildings can
accommodate tuck-under parking, and mansion apartment buildings can be designed with
internal garages, typically a one-car garage per unit, or with a separate multi-bay garage that
could also provide one or two additional condominiums on the second story.
The least expensive rowhouses and cottages should be designed with one-car garages. To make
these units more affordable, parking pads in the rear of the units could be substituted for the
garages. The most expensive rowhouses and detached houses should include two-car garages.
Table 7 Page 1 of 2
Optimum Market Position--500 Dwelling Units
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
Base Approx.Base Forecast
Percent of Average Net Unit Rent/Price Unit Size Rent/Price Annual
Units Density Housing Type Type Range*Range Per Sq. Ft.*Absorption
Number
43.1%Multi-Family For-Rent 78
83 n/a Tax-Credit Units 1br/1ba $649 30
Flats and Duplexes 2br/1ba $665
40 n/a Lofts Studio/1ba $700 500 $1.40 16
{Mixed-Use Buildings}1br/1ba $800 600 $1.33
2br/2ba $1,100 900 $1.22
{dual masters}
93 25 du Apartments Studio/1ba $850 550 $1.55 32
{Mansion or 1br/1ba $950 650 $1.46
Courtyard Buildings}2br/2ba $1,250 950 $1.32
2br/2ba/office $1,600 1,250 $1.28
14.4%Multi-Family For-Sale 26
40 20 du Lofts Studio/1ba $140,000 600 $233 14
{Courtyard Buildings}1br/1ba $160,000 700 $229
2br/2ba $225,000 1,000 $225
32 20 du Apartments 1br/1.5ba $185,000 750 $247 12
{Mansion or 2br/2ba $265,000 1,100 $241
Courtyard Buildings}2br/2.5ba $300,000 1,300 $231
9.4%Single-Family Attached For-Sale 18
41 12 du Rowhouses 2br/1.5ba $175,000 900 $194 16
2br/2.5ba $285,000 1,250 $228
3br/2.5ba $325,000 1,450 $224
6 12 du Live-Work Units 2br/2.5.5ba $350,000 1,500 $233 2
500 to 750 sf 2br/2.5.5ba $400,000 2,000 $200
"work" space
*Base rents/prices in 2006 dollars, first phase only, and exclude options and upgrades.
SOURCE:Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 7 Page 2 of 2
Optimum Market Position--500 Dwelling Units
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
Base Approx.Base Forecast
Percent of Average Net Rent/Price Unit Size Rent/Price Average
Units Density Housing Type Range*Range Per Sq. Ft.*Absorption
Number
33.1%Single-Family Detached For-Sale 45
48 8 du Cottages 2br/1.5ba $195,000 950 $205 12
{1 1/2-story}2br/2.5ba $240,000 1,200 $200
3br/2.5ba $275,000 1,400 $196
69 6 du Bungalows 2br/2.5ba $295,000 1,350 $219 21
{1 1/2- & 2-story}3br/2.5ba $335,000 1,600 $209
3br/2.5ba $350,000 1,750 $200
48 5 du Houses 3br/2.5ba $375,000 1,700 $221 12
{2-story}4br/2.5ba $425,000 2,000 $213
4br/2.5ba $475,000 2,250 $211
100.0%167
including rentals
500 Dwelling Units 89
excluding rentals
*Base rents/prices in 2006 dollars, first phase only, and exclude options and upgrades.
SOURCE:Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 27
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
In most market areas, an annual condominium fee is equal to about one to two percent of the
base price of an individual unit. In Northampton, for example, one percent of a base price of
$225,000 would result in a $187.50 monthly condominiuim fee. So, based on the range of
condominium prices, the condominium fees should range between $100 and $250 per month.
That fee should cover insurance, management fee, landscape and maintenance of common areas,
snow removal, garbage collection, street lighting, amenities and social activities.
To meet the expectations of potential residents, all units should be wired for cable television
and high-speed internet or, if practical, be served by a building-wide WiFi system. For open
lofts or soft lofts in adaptive re-use structures, existing floors should be salvaged and
refinished wherever possible; in new construction, bamboo floors would be appropriate, with
ceramic tile for the bathroom and kitchen areas.
In the kitchens, buyers in particular will expect countertops to be Corian or granite or some
other durable material, with integral or undermount sinks, mid-scale appliances, and plain-
front European-style cabinetry; renters will expect contemporary, durable finishes appropriate
to urban living, as opposed to the “beige” interiors of suburban multi-family housing.
Although open lofts are typically designed without interior walls, with the exception of the
bathroom, as much closet and storage space as possible should be provided. Soft lofts are
units that are fully finished and partitioned into individual rooms but also contain
architectural elements reminiscent of “hard lofts,” such as exposed beams, ductwork and
masonry or brick walls, reconditioned floors and large, commercial-style windows.
Apartments in new construction will require more conventional finishes, such as carpeted
bedroom floors, with carpet or hardwood in living and dining areas and tile in the kitchens
and baths. Again, kitchen countertops should be Corian or granite, with integral or
undermount ceramic sinks and mid-scale appliances, and a choice of European or traditional
cabinets. Bathrooms should have ceramic tile floors and traditional fixtures.
The Male Attendants’ building, although in dilapidated condition, has the potential to be
developed as either rental or for-sale lofts, perhaps as artists’ live-work units. Based on the
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 28
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
target market analysis, the number of new construction live-work units should be limited to six
1,500- and 2,500-square-foot units; they could be located in front of the Male Attendants’
building on the main drive. However, any live-work units should be flexible in order to
respond to economic, social and technological changes over time and to accommodate as wide
as possible a range of potential uses. The unit configuration must also be flexible in order to
comply with the requirements of the Fair Housing Amendments Act and the Americans with
Disabilities Act.
The growing number of home-based businesses in the United States (reported in 1997 as four
million) is often cited as a justification for live-work. However, there is an important
distinction between a “home-based business” and a “business-based home.” Most home-based
businesses can be accommodated in almost any kind of dwelling unit. In contrast, the
business-based home is a true live-work unit: a dwelling unit with a configuration that is
influenced or even dictated by the non-residential activities.
In New Urbanist developments that are currently under construction across the country, true
live-work units tend to be most successful in projects that have been underway for several years,
within an already established neighborhood or town center. In most of the developments for
which information is available, live-work units are likely to be purchased by households for use
as dwelling units only, or purchased by investors. A resident investor can lease the flex space
for residential, retail or office use; a non-resident investor can lease both the main residential
space or the flex space. Since experience shows that it is uncommon for retail operators to live
above the store, live-work units must comply with local codes permitting the legal separation
of uses in order to maintain investor flexibility.
Successful development of mixed-income housing requires adherence to several critical design
and development strategies:
•Buildings should be designed to enhance the public realm, with emphasis on well-
defined streets, sidewalks and paths, and to provide the “eyes on the street” that will
ensure public safety.
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 29
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
•ALL units should reflect the interior configurations and finish standards, as well as
exterior designs, associated with market-rate dwelling units.
•The proposed market-rate rents and prices and forecast absorption paces are predicated
on appropriate and professional marketing and advertising programs. A sign posted on
the property indicating that houses are for sale will be insufficient; the optimum
market position is predicated on establishing a significant presence in the marketplace
for the Village at Hospital Hill.
To ensure a competitive market position that will attract households with the financial
capability to purchase market-rate housing units, advertising and marketing should
focus on the market-rate housing units. The goal is to convey the image of a vital new
community that includes people of all ages and incomes.
Market-rate rental development is the linchpin of most urban development and, in this case,
should be introduced to the market in significant numbers as quickly as possible, for several
important reasons:
•Rental apartments are required for the establishment of “critical mass,” because rentals
are absorbed at higher rates than for-sale units.
•Rentals are the fastest way to bring a large number of households to a site.
•Rentals allow households to experiment with living in an area without the mortgage
commitment of home ownership.
•Renters form a pool of potential purchasers of for-sale condominiums, rowhouses and
detached houses in later phases.
Although there is often the perception that multi-family rentals reduce the value of nearby
single-family detached houses, this is not the case in new construction with appropriate site
planning. In fact, there is growing academic evidence that new apartment developments may
actually increase values of nearby single-family homes by adding choice to an area that is
made more attractive through planning and design.
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 30
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
The most appropriate first-phase approach would be a row of mansion buildings, some which
are condominim buildings, some of which are rentals with a mix of market-rate and
affordable units. From the neighborhood-building perspective, it is preferable to introduce a
mixed-income development with a market-driven mix of rental and for-sale, market-rate and
below-market units, rather than either all affordable rentals or all market-rate ownership units.
Ultimately, escalation of values will depend upon the enhancement of the neighborhood’s
urban character. An urban residential neighborhood succeeds when its physical characteristics
consistently emphasize urbanity and the qualities of city life; conversely, attempts to introduce
suburban scale and housing types into urban areas have invariably yielded disappointing results.
Therefore, appropriate urban design—which places as much emphasis on creating quality
streets and public places as on creating or redeveloping quality buildings—will be essential to
success.
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 31
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
—ABSORPTION FORECASTS—
Absorption of 500 mixed-income dwelling units within the Village at Hospital Hill could be
achieved within four years from commencement of marketing, depending on phasing and
construction, and barring a significant and persistent downturn in the national, regional and
local economies.
Annual absorption is forecast as follows (see again Table 7):
Annual Absorption
THE VILLAGE AT HOSPITAL HILL
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
Multi-family for-rent 78
Tax credit 30
Lofts 16
Apartments 32
Multi-family for-sale 26
Lofts 14
Apartments 12
Single-family attached for-sale 18
Rowhouses 16
Live-work 2
Single-family detached for-sale 45
Cottages 12
Bungalows 21
Houses 12
Total 167
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2006.
At the forecast absorption of 167 units in one year, including all rental units, new residential
development within the Village at Hospital Hill would require a capture rate of 9.2 percent of
the 1,810 households, identified through target market analysis, that have the potential to rent
or purchase, with and without financial assistance, new multi-family or single-family attached
and detached housing units within the the Village at Hospital Hill in the year 2006—a rate
that is well within the target market methodology’s parameters of feasibility.
The annual absorption forecasts require specific capture rates of those households that, in the
year 2006, represent the potential market for each housing type on the site, as follows:
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Required Capture Rates
Based on Annual Absorption
THE VILLAGE AT HOSPITAL HILL
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
ANNUAL AVERAGE REQUIRED
HOUSING MARKET ANNUAL CAPTURE
TYPE POTENTIAL (HHS)ABSORPTION (UNITS)RATE
Multi-family for-rent 780 78 10.0%
Multi-family for-sale 260 26 10.0%
Single-family attached for-sale 170 18 10.6%
Single-family detached for-sale 600 45 7.5%
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2006.
These housing type-specific capture rates are well within the parameters required for feasible
development. Based on over 18 years’ experience with the target market methodology in 42
states, and within the context of the Northampton marketplace, there is a high degree of
confidence in a capture rate of up to 15 percent for multi-family and single-family attached
housing, and up to10 percent for for-sale single-family detached housing.
NOTE: Target market capture rates are a unique and highly-refined measure of feasibility. Target
market capture rates are not equivalent to—and should not be confused with—penetration rates or traffic
conversion rates.
The target market capture rate is derived by dividing the annual forecast absorption—in aggregate and
by housing type—by the number of households that have the potential to purchase or rent new housing
within a specified area in a given year.
The penetration rate is derived by dividing the total number of dwelling units planned for a property
by the total number of draw area households, sometimes qualified by income.
The traffic conversion rate is derived by dividing the total number of buyers or renters by the total
number of prospects that have visited a site.
Because the prospective market for a location is more precisely defined, target market capture rates are
higher than the more grossly-derived penetration rates. However, the resulting higher capture rates are
well within the range of prudent feasibility.
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NEIGHBORHOOD FORM
The optimum market position is predicated on a well-executed master plan based on the
principles of the New Urbanism. The basic elements of neighborhood form are outlined
below under THE NEW URBANISM. However, the application of these elements can be
summarized in several practical guidelines:
•The streets should be as narrow as possible, well-defined by street trees and sidewalks.
•Lots should be established with common depths on a block. This allows maximum
flexibility of mixing housing types, both to respond to real estate market changes and
to make transitions from the more compact neighborhood center to the larger-lot edge.
•Buildings should generally hold a build-to (rather than set-back) line. Build-to lines
are as important to establish as lot lines and will vary depending on block condition,
view potential and other factors.
•Attached and narrow-lot housing types will require that parking is loaded from the
rear through alleys or lanes. Although single-loaded alleys should be avoided to
minimize infrastructure costs, there may be areas in which they will become necessary;
the increased unit yield should more than offset their potential additional expense.
•When garages are accessed from the street, attractive streetscapes will depend upon
garages being situated well behind the façades of the houses. A simple guideline is
that a garage should be recessed from the main façade of the house a distance equal to
the width of the garage.
•Buildings facing each other across a street should be of similar height, scale and lot
disposition.
•Buildings facing each other across a green, park or other open space can be of a different
height, scale and lot disposition.
•Phases should be undertaken from mid-block to mid-block (or alley to alley) so that
streets are completed on both sides.
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The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
THE NEW URBANISM
One of the key assumptions underlying the optimum market position is that the property is
designed according to the principles of the New Urbanism.
The Charter of the Congress for the New Urbanism is the definitive source for the principles
of the New Urbanism, which form the basis of traditional neighborhood development.
From the market perspective, a traditional neighborhood development performs best when it
also contains the following:
1.A variety of housing types—both rental and for-sale—with higher densities within
and surrounding a neighborhood center.
2.One or more neighborhood centers. These centers can range from a small park to a
mixed-use civic and/or commercial area.
3.A significant neighborhood center, with a post office or other small-scale
commercial or civic uses, located within a five-minute walk—approximately
1,300 feet—of a majority of the dwelling units.
4.At least one important location reserved for a civic use, which can range from a
postal center to a town hall.
5.Greens, squares and small parks throughout the neighborhood.
6.A continuous street network, ranging from larger streets to narrow rear lanes or
alleys.
7.Streets fronted by private or public uses; no parking lots or garage doors visible
from the street; parking accessed from the rear by a lane or alley on lots less than
50 feet wide.
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BUILDING AND UNIT TYPES
–Multi-Family–
• Lofts : Lofts typically have high ceilings and commercial windows and can be
minimally finished, limited to architectural elements such as columns and fin walls, or
fully finished, often including full or partial interiors.
A building’s loft apartments can be leased, as in a conventional income property, or
sold to individual buyers, under condominium or cooperative ownership, in which the
owner pays a monthly maintenance fee in addition to the purchase price. New
construction lofts, whether for-rent or for-sale, should include work space as a
permitted use. (Loft apartments can also be incorporated into multifamily buildings
along with conventionally-finished apartment units.)
• Courtyard Apartment Building : In new construction, an urban, pedestrian-oriented
equivalent to conventional garden apartments. An urban courtyard building is two or
more stories, often combined with non-residential uses on the ground floor. The
building should be built to the sidewalk edge and, to provide privacy and a sense of
security, the first floor should be elevated significantly above grade.
• Mansion Apartment Building : A small-scale, two- or three-story apartment building,
often with a street façade resembling a large detached house. The mansion building
can accommodate a variety of uses—from rental or for-sale apartments, professional
offices, any of these uses over ground-floor retail, a bed and breakfast inn, or a large
single-family detached house—and its physical structure complements other buildings
within a neighborhood.
–Single-Family Attached–
• Rowhouse : Similar in form to a conventional suburban townhouse except that the
garage—either attached or detached—is located to the rear of the unit or integrated
within the unit and is accessed from an alley or auto court. Unlike conventional
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townhouses, rowhouses in traditional neighborhoods conform to the pattern of streets,
typically with shallow front-yard setbacks. To provide privacy and a sense of security,
the first floor should be elevated above sidewalk level.
• Live-work is a unit or building type that accommodates non-residential uses in
addition to, or combined with living quarters. The typical live-work unit is a
building, either attached or detached, with a principal dwelling unit that includes
flexible space that can be used as office, retail, or studio space, or as an accessory
dwelling unit. Live-work units could therefore be developed through adaptation of a
rowhouse, the combination of two adjacent rowhouses, or within a multi-family
building. Non-residential ground-floor uses could be helpful in establishing a
daytime presence in neighborhoods that are largely residential, thereby adding an
element of security.
–Single-Family Detached–
• Bungalow/Cottage/House : A one-, one-and-a-half or two-story single-family
detached house on a small lot, often with alley-loaded parking. Parking generally
should be alley-loaded on lots narrower than 50 feet.
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The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
METHODOLOGY
The technical analysis of market potential for the mixed-use, mixed-income development of
the Village at Hospital Hill included delineation of the draw areas and physical evaluation of
the site and the surrounding context.
The delineation of the draw areas for housing within the City of Northampton was based on
historic settlement patterns, migration trends for Hampshire County, and other market
dynamics.
The evaluation of market potential for the area was derived from target market analysis of
households in the draw areas, and yielded:
•The depth and breadth of the potential housing market by tenure (rental and
ownership) and by type (apartments, attached and detached houses); and
•The composition of the potential housing market (empty-nesters/retirees,
traditional and non-traditional families, younger singles/couples).
NOTE: The Appendix Tables referenced here are provided in a separate document.
DELINEATION OF THE DRAW AREAS (MIGRATION ANALYSIS)—
Taxpayer migration data provide the framework for the delineation of the draw areas—the
principal counties of origin for households that are likely to move to Hampshire County.
These data are maintained at the county and “county equivalent” level by the Internal Revenue
Service and provide a clear representation of mobility patterns.
Appendix One, Table 1.
Migration Trends
Analysis of Hampshire County migration and mobility patterns from 1999 through 2003—the
latest data available from the Internal Revenue Service—shows that, over the study period, the
number of households moving into the county rose between 1999 and 2001, then dropped in
both 2002 and 2003, falling to just under 4,700 in-migrating households in 2003. Over the
same period, the number of households moving out of the county has remained fairly
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City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
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ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
consistent, rising briefly in 2001 and 2002, then falling to 4,565 out-migrating households in
2003. However, over the study period, Hampshire County has gone from net household losses
through out-migration (i.e., more households moved out of the county than moved into the
county), with net losses of 55 and 45 households in 1999 and 2000, respectively, to net gains of
400 or more households in 2001 and 2002, and a net gain of 120 households in 2003.
NOTE: Although net migration provides insights into a county’s historical ability to attract or retain
households compared to other locations, it is those households likely to move into the county (gross in-
migration) that represent the county’s external market potential.
Based on the migration data, the draw areas for the City of Northampton have been delineated
as follows:
•The primary (internal) draw area, covering households currently living within the City
of Northampton and the balance of Hampshire County.
•The regional draw area, covering households with the potential to move to the City of
Northampton from Hampden, Franklin, Worcester and Middlesex Counties.
•The national draw area, covering households with the potential to move to the City of
Northampton from all other U.S. counties.
Anecdotal information obtained from real estate brokers, sales persons, leasing agents, and
other knowledgeable sources corresponded to the migration data.
Migration Methodology :
County-to-county migration is based on the year-to-year changes in the addresses shown on the
population of returns from the Internal Revenue Service Individual Master File system. Data
on migration patterns by county, or county equivalent, for the entire United States, include
inflows and outflows. The data include the number of returns (which can be used to
approximate the number of households), and the median and average incomes reported on the
returns.
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The Village at Hospital Hill
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April, 2006
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TARGET MARKET CLASSIFICATION OF CITY AND COUNTY HOUSEHOLDS—
Geo-demographic data obtained from Claritas, Inc. provide the framework for the
categorization of households, not only by demographic characteristics, but also by lifestyle
preferences and socio-economic factors. An appendix containing detailed descriptions of each
of these target market groups is provided along with the study.
Appendix One, Tables 2A And 2B, 3A And 3B.
Target Market Classifications
Of the estimated 12,320 households living in the City of Northampton in 2005, just over 58
percent, or 7,175 households, are in household groups with median incomes above $50,000.
(Reference Appendix One, Table 2A in APPENDIX ONE: TABLES.) Nearly 42 percent of the
city’s “market-rate” households can be classified as younger singles and couples, another 37.5
percent are empty nesters and retirees, and the remaining 20.8 percent are traditional and non-
traditional families.
The remaining 5,145 city households are in target market groups in which a considerably
smaller percentage of households are able to qualify for market-rate housing. (See Appendix
One, Table 2B.) Of these households, 45.2 percent can be characterized as empty nesters and
retirees, 44.7 percent are younger singles and couples, and 10.1 percent are traditional and non-
traditional families.
In 2005, median income in the City of Northampton was estimated at $49,500, more than 3.5
percent higher than the national median of $47,800. Median home value in the city was
estimated at $226,500, nearly percent higher than the national median of $149,300.
Of the estimated 58,905 households living in Hampshire County in 2005, just over 64 percent,
or 37,785 households, are in household groups with median incomes above $50,000.
(Reference Appendix One, Table 3A in APPENDIX ONE: TABLES.) Up to 36.2 percent of
Hampshire County’s “market-rate” households can be classified as younger singles and couples,
another 34.6 percent are empty nesters and retirees, and the remaining 29.2 percent are
traditional and non-traditional families.
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The remaining 21,120 Hampshire County households are in target market groups in which a
considerably smaller percentage of households are able to qualify for market-rate housing.
(See Appendix One, Table 3B.) Of these households, 42.7 percent can be characterized as
empty nesters and retirees, 40.2 percent as younger singles and couples, and the remaining 17
percent as traditional and non-traditional families.
In 2005, median income in Hampshire County was estimated $52,500, nearly 10 percent
higher than the national median. Median home value in the county was estimated at
$219,400,nearly 47 higher than the national median.
Target Market Methodology :
The proprietary target market methodology developed by Zimmerman/Volk Associates is
an analytical technique, using the PRIZM geo-demographic system, that establishes the
optimum market position for residential development of any property—from a specific site
to an entire political jurisdiction—through cluster analysis of households living within
designated draw areas. In contrast to classical supply/demand analysis—which is based on
supply-side dynamics and baseline demographic projections—target market analysis
establishes the optimum market position derived from the housing and lifestyle preferences of
households in the draw area and within the framework of the local housing market context, even
in locations where no close comparables exist.
In geo-demographic segmentation, clusters of households (usually between 10 and 15) are
grouped according to a variety of significant factors, ranging from basic demographic
characteristics, such as income qualification and age, to less-frequently considered attributes
such as mobility rates, lifestyle patterns and compatibility issues. Zimmerman/Volk
Associates has refined the analysis of these household clusters through the correlation of more
than 500 data points related to housing preferences and consumer and lifestyle characteristics.
As a result of this process, Zimmerman/Volk Associates has identified 41 target market
groups with median incomes that enable most of the households within each group to qualify
for market-rate housing, and an additional 21 groups with median incomes in which a much
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smaller number of households is able to qualify for market-rate housing. The most affluent of
the 62 groups can afford the most expensive new ownership units; the least prosperous are
candidates for the least expensive existing rental apartments.
Once the draw areas for a property have been defined, then—through field investigation,
analysis of historic migration and development trends, and employment and commutation
patterns—the households within those areas are quantified using the target market
methodology. The potential market for new market-rate units is then determined by the
correlation of a number of factors—including, but not limited to: household mobility rates;
median incomes; lifestyle characteristics and housing preferences; the location of the site; and
the competitive environment.
The end result of this series of filters is the optimum market position—by tenure, building
configuration and household type, including specific recommendations for unit sizes, rents
and/or prices—and projections of absorption within the local housing context.
DETERMINATION OF THE POTENTIAL MARKET FOR THE CITY OF NORTHAMPTON
(MOBILITY ANALYSIS)—
The mobility tables, individually and in summaries, indicate the number and type of
households that have the potential to move within or to the City of Northampton in the year
2006. The total number from each county is derived from historic migration trends; the
number of households from each group is based on each group’s mobility rate.
Appendix One, Tables 4A And 4B.
Internal Mobility (Households Moving Within The City Of Northampton)—
Zimmerman/Volk Associates uses U.S. Bureau of the Census data, combined with Claritas
data, to determine the number of households in each target market group that will move from
one residence to another within a specific jurisdiction in a given year (internal mobility).
Using these data, Zimmerman/Volk Associates has determined that up to 1,400 households
(850 households in groups with median incomes above $50,000 and 550 households in groups
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 42
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with median incomes below $50,000) living in the City of Northampton have the potential to
move from one residence to another in 2006.
Appendix One, Tables 5A And 5B.
External Mobility (Households Moving To The City Of Northampton From The Balance
Of Hampshire County)—
The same sources of data are used to determine the number of households in each target market
group that will move from one area to another within the same county . Using these data, 1,200
households (900 households in groups with median incomes above $50,000 and 300 households
in groups with median incomes below $50,000) living in the balance of Hampshire County
have the potential to move from a residence in the county to a residence in the city in 2006.
Appendix One, Tables 6A And 6B Through 7A And 7B; Appendix Two, Tables 1A And 1B
Through 4A And 4B.
External Mobility (Households Moving To The City Of Northampton From Outside
Hampshire County)—
These tables determine the number of households in each target market group living in each
draw area county that are likely to move to the City of Northampton in 2006 (through a
correlation of Claritas data, U.S. Bureau of the Census data, and the Internal Revenue Service
migration data).
Appendix One, Tables 8A And 8B.
Market Potential For The City Of Northampton—
These two tables summarize Appendix One, Tables 3A and 3B through 7A and 7B. The
numbers in the Total column on page one of these tables indicate the depth and breadth of the
potential market for new and existing dwelling units in the City of Northampton in the year
2006 originating from households currently living in the draw areas. Up to 4,600 households
have the potential to move within or to the City of Northampton this year (3,250 households
in groups with median incomes above $50,000 and 1,350 households in groups with median
incomes below $50,000).
The distribution of the draw areas as a percentage of the potential market for the City of
Northampton is as follows:
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 43
The Village at Hospital Hill
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
Market Potential By Draw Area
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
City of Northampton (Primary Draw Area):30.4 percent
Hampshire County(Primary Draw Area):26.1 percent
Regional Draw Area:18.5 percent
Balance of US (National Draw Area):25.0 percent
Total:100.0 percent
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2006.
DETERMINATION OF THE POTENTIAL MARKET FOR THE VILLAGE AT HOSPITAL
HILL—
The total potential market for new mixed-income residential development to be constructed
on the Village at Hospital Hill site also includes the primary, regional, and national draw
areas. Zimmerman/Volk Associates uses U.S. Bureau of the Census data, combined with
Claritas data, to determine which target market groups, as well as how many households
within each group, are likely to move to the site in a given year.
Appendix One, Tables 9A And 9B.
Market Potential For The Village At Hospital Hill—
As derived by the target market methodology, up to 1,810 of the 4,600 households that
represent the market for new and existing housing units in the City of Northampton are a
market for new housing units on the Village at Hospital Hill site. Within household groups
with median incomes above $50,000, 1,270 households have the potential to move to the site
this year. (See Appendix One, Table 9A.) Nearly 60 percent of these households are likely to
be younger singles and couples (as characterized within 10 of Zimmerman/Volk Associates’
target market groups); just under 23 percent are likely to be empty nesters and retirees (in five
groups); and the remaining 17.3 percent are likely to be traditional and non-traditional
families (in five groups).
Within household groups with median incomes below $50,000, up to 540 households have the
potential to move to the site this year. (See Appendix One, Table 9B.) Nearly 453 percent of
these households are likely to be empty nesters and retirees (in five target market groups); 37
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 44
The Village at Hospital Hill
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percent are likely to be younger singles and couples (in three groups); and the remaining 20.4
percent are likely to be traditional and non-traditional family households (in two groups).
The distribution of the draw areas as a percentage of the market for the Village at Hospital
Hill is:
Market Potential By Draw Area
THE VILLAGE AT HOSPITAL HILL
City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
City of Northampton (Primary Draw Area):32.0 percent
Hampshire County(Primary Draw Area):12.2 percent
Regional Draw Area:19.3 percent
Balance of US (National Draw Area):36.5 percent
Total:100.0 percent
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2006.
The 1,810 draw area households that have the potential to move to the Village at Hospital
Hill this year have been categorized by tenure propensities to determine renter/owner ratios.
(See Appendix One, Tables 10 through 12.)
Approximately 26.5 percent of these households (or 480 households) comprise the potential
market for rental units at the rent levels required to support newly-constructed market-rate
housing. Another 16.6 percent (300 households) have incomes below $50,000, insufficient to
support newly-constructed market-rate housing. (See Appendix One, Table 12.)
Up to 14.4 percent (260 households) comprise the market for all ranges of multi-family
ownership (condominium or cooperative) units. Another 9.4 percent (170 households)
comprise the market for all ranges of attached single-family (rowhouse or live-work) units.
Another 8.8 percent (160 households) would require financial assistance to purchase market-
rate single-family detached houses, and the remaining 24.3 percent (440 households) have the
financial capacity to purchase market-rate single-family detached houses without assistance.
(See again Appendix One, Table 12.)
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL (Draft)Page 45
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ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
—Target Market Data—
Target market data are based on the Claritas PRIZM geo-demographic system, modified and
augmented by Zimmerman/Volk Associates as the basis for its proprietary target market
methodology. Target market data provides number of households by cluster aggregated into
the three main demographic categories—empty nesters and retirees; traditional and non-
traditional families; and younger singles and couples.
Zimmerman/Volk Associates’ target market classifications are updated periodically to
reflect the slow, but relentless change in the composition of American households. Because of
the nature of geo-demographic segmentation, a change in household classification is directly
correlated with a change in geography, i.e.—a move from one neighborhood condition to
another. However, these changes of classification can also reflect an alteration in one of three
additional basic characteristics:
•Age;
•Household composition; or
•Economic status.
Age, of course, is the most predictable, and easily-defined of these changes. Household
composition has also been relatively easy to define; recently, with the growth of non-
traditional households, however, definitions of a family have had to be expanded and parsed
into more highly-refined segments. Economic status remains clearly defined through measures
of annual income and household wealth.
A change in classification is rarely induced by a change in just one of the four basic
characteristics. This is one reason that the target household categories are so highly refined:
they take in multiple characteristics. Even so, there are some rough equivalents in household
types as they move from one neighborhood condition to another. There is, for example, a
strong correlation between the Suburban Achievers and the Urban Achievers; a move by the
Suburban Achievers to the urban core can make them Urban Achievers, if the move is
accompanied by an upward move in socio-economic status. In contrast, Suburban Achievers
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City of Northampton, Hampshire County, Massachusetts
April, 2006
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
who move up socio-economically, but remain within the metropolitan suburbs may become
Fast-Track Professionals or The VIPs.
Household Classification Methodology :
Household classifications are based on the Claritas PRIZM geo-demographic segmentation
system, which was established in 1974 and is the most widely-used neighborhood target
marketing system in the United States. Claritas uses 15 unique clustering algorithms to define
various domains of affluence and settlement density. These algorithms isolate the key factors
in each density-affluence domain that accounted for the most statistical difference among
neighborhoods within that group.
Over the past 18 years, Zimmerman/Volk Associates has augmented the PRIZM cluster
system for use within the company’s proprietary target market methodology specific to
housing and neighborhood preferences, with additional algorithms, correlation with geo-coded
consumer data, aggregation of clusters by broad household definition, and unique cluster
names. For purposes of this study, only those household groups with median incomes that
enable most of the households within each group to qualify for market-rate housing are
included in the tables.
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Research & Strategic Analysis
ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS—
Every effort has been made to insure the accuracy of the data contained within this analysis.
Demographic and economic estimates and projections have been obtained from government
agencies at the national, state, and county levels. Market information has been obtained from
sources presumed to be reliable, including developers, owners, and/or sales agents. However,
this information cannot be warranted by Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. While the
methodology employed in this analysis allows for a margin of error in base data, it is
assumed that the market data and government estimates and projections are substantially
accurate.
Absorption scenarios are based upon the assumption that a normal economic environment will
prevail in a relatively steady state during development of the subject property. Absorption
paces are likely to be slower during recessionary periods and faster during periods of recovery
and high growth. Absorption scenarios are also predicated on the assumption that the product
recommendations will be implemented generally as outlined in this report and that the
developer will apply high-caliber design, construction, marketing, and management techniques
to the development of the property.
Recommendations are subject to compliance with all applicable regulations. Relevant
accounting, tax, and legal matters should be substantiated by appropriate counsel.
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ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
6 East Main Street
Clinton, New Jersey 08809
908 735-6336 • 908 735-4751 facsimile
www.ZVA.cc • info@ZVA.cc
Research & Strategic Analysis
RIGHTS AND STUDY OWNERSHIP—
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. retains all rights, title and interest in the methodology and
target market descriptions contained within this study. The specific findings of the analysis are
the property of the client and can be distributed at the client’s discretion.
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ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC., 2006